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ENG Inglaterra - National League · Round 1 ·

Carlisle vs Worthing

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score2–12.88 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local43%
Empate25%
Victoria visitante32%
Baseline forecastVictoria localTier C · 43% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local43% selection probability
Projected score2–1CarlisleWorthing
Expected goals2.88Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Más de55% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcan58% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Más de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
43% / 25% / 32%Resultado del partidoVictoria local43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.6%)Doble Oportunidad1275.4%1.33
Más de 55% · Menos de 45%Goals 2.5Más de55%1.82
Sí 58% · No 42%Ambos equipos marcan58%1.72
2.88 total expected goalsMarcador exacto2–1
9.9 expected match cornersCórnersMás de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCuotas justas
Carlisle win43%2.33
Empate25%4.00
Worthing win32%3.13

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Carlisle1.57

Local share of expected goals 54.5%

Total expected goals2.88Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Más de 55% · Menos de 45%

Worthing1.31

Visitante share of expected goals 45.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 58% · No 42%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Carlisle

2.20pts / match
Jugados5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Puntos11

SignalLocal unbeaten 5/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Worthing

2.40pts / match
Jugados5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Puntos12

SignalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Ganado probability excluding draw
32%
11
Points from supplied form
12
1.57
Expected goals
1.31
CarlisleWorthing
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Carlisle signalLocal unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Worthing signalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Carlisle vs Worthing FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 2–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Carlisle ganada 43%,Empate 25%,Worthing ganada 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.88 · Más de 2.5 55% · Current selection Más de