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JPN Japan - J-League · Round 1 ·

FC Tokyo vs Machida Zelvia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score1–11.90 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst38%
Gelijkspel33%
Uitwinst29%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst38% selection probability
Projected score1–1FC TokyoMachida Zelvia
Expected goals1.90Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Onder70% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee62% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
38% / 33% / 29%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Machida Zelvia win (29.3%)Dubbele Kans1X70.7%1.41
Boven 30% · Onder 70%Goals 2.5Onder70%1.43
Ja 38% · Nee 62%Beide teams scorenNee62%1.61
1.90 total expected goalsExacte score1–1
8.9 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
FC Tokyo win38%2.63
Gelijkspel33%3.03
Machida Zelvia win29%3.45

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FC Tokyo1.07

Thuis share of expected goals 56.3%

Total expected goals1.90Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Boven 30% · Onder 70%

Machida Zelvia0.83

Uit share of expected goals 43.7%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 38% · Nee 62%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

FC Tokyo

0.80pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punten4

SignalThuis failed to score: 4/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Machida Zelvia

2.20pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Punten11

SignalUit unbeaten 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
38%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
29%
4
Points from supplied form
11
1.07
Expected goals
0.83
FC TokyoMachida Zelvia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FC Tokyo signalThuis failed to score: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Machida Zelvia signalUit unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 33%.

Match questions

FC Tokyo vs Machida Zelvia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 1–1 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FC Tokyo gewonnen 38%,Gelijkspel 33%,Machida Zelvia gewonnen 29%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.90 · Boven 2.5 30% · Current selection Onder