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HND Honduras Liga Nacional · Round 1 ·

Motagua vs Estrella Roja

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–12.73 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier43%
Uavgjort25%
Borteseier32%
Baseline forecastHjemmeseierTier C · 43% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier43% selection probability
Projected score1–1MotaguaEstrella Roja
Expected goals2.73Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over51% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
43% / 25% / 32%KampresultatHjemmeseier43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25.4%)Dobbel sjanse1274.6%1.34
Over 51% · Under 49%Goals 2.5Over51%1.96
Ja 55% · Nei 45%Begge lag scorerJa55%1.82
2.73 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.9 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRettferdig odds
Motagua win43%2.33
Uavgjort25%4.00
Estrella Roja win32%3.13

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Motagua1.48

Hjemme share of expected goals 54.2%

Total expected goals2.73Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 51% · Under 49%

Estrella Roja1.25

Borte share of expected goals 45.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 55% · Nei 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Motagua

2.20pts / match
Spilt5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Poeng11

SignalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Estrella Roja

0.00pts / match
Spilt1Wins0Drawn0Losses1Poeng0

SignalHjemme clean sheets: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
32%
11
Points from supplied form
0
1.48
Expected goals
1.25
MotaguaEstrella Roja
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Motagua signalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Estrella Roja signalHjemme clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Motagua vs Estrella Roja FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 1–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Motagua vunnet 43%,Uavgjort 25%,Estrella Roja vunnet 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.73 · Over 2.5 51% · Current selection Over