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HND Honduras - Liga Nacional · Round 1 ·

Motagua vs Estrella Roja

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–12.73 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg43%
Unentschieden25%
Auswärtssieg32%
Baseline forecastHeimsiegTier C · 43% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg43% selection probability
Projected score1–1MotaguaEstrella Roja
Expected goals2.73Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Über51% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
43% / 25% / 32%SpielergebnisHeimsieg43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25.4%)Doppelte Chance1274.6%1.34
Über 51% · Unter 49%Goals 2.5Über51%1.96
Ja 55% · Nein 45%Beide Teams treffenJa55%1.82
2.73 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–1
9.9 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nein snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFaire Quote
Motagua win43%2.33
Unentschieden25%4.00
Estrella Roja win32%3.13

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Motagua1.48

Heim share of expected goals 54.2%

Total expected goals2.73Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 51% · Unter 49%

Estrella Roja1.25

Auswärts share of expected goals 45.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 55% · Nein 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Motagua

2.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Punkte11

SignalHeim unbeaten 5/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Estrella Roja

0.00pts / match
Gespielt1Wins0Drawn0Losses1Punkte0

SignalHeim clean sheets: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
32%
11
Points from supplied form
0
1.48
Expected goals
1.25
MotaguaEstrella Roja
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Motagua signalHeim unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Estrella Roja signalHeim clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Motagua vs Estrella Roja FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 1–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Motagua Gewinn 43%,Unentschieden 25%,Estrella Roja Gewinn 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.73 · Über 2.5 51% · Current selection Über