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WAL Wales Championship South · Kamp ·

Newport City vs Carmarthen

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–22.93 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier32%
Uavgjort24%
Borteseier44%
Full model forecastBorteseierTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callBorteseier44% selection probability
Projected score1–2Newport CityCarmarthen
Expected goals2.93Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over56% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa57% for the selected side
Expected corners10.5Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
32% / 24% / 44%KampresultatBorteseier44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.4%)Dobbel sjanse1275.6%1.32
Over 56% · Under 44%Goals 2.5Over56%1.79
Ja 57% · Nei 43%Begge lag scorerJa57%1.75
2.93 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–2
10.5 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.0%Largest probability gapCarmarthen winDifference+1.1 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Newport City win32%3.132.7532.8%-0.8 pp
Uavgjort24%4.173.7024.3%-0.3 pp
Carmarthen win44%2.272.1042.9%+1.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Newport City1.14

Hjemme share of expected goals 38.9%

Total expected goals2.93Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 56% · Under 44%

Carmarthen1.79

Borte share of expected goals 61.1%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitJa 57% · Nei 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Newport City

1.20pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Poeng6

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Carmarthen

1.40pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poeng7

SignalHjemme failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
32%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
44%
6
Points from supplied form
7
1.14
Expected goals
1.79
Newport CityCarmarthen
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Newport City signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Carmarthen signalHjemme failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Newport City vs Carmarthen FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Borteseier · Projected score 1–2 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Newport City vunnet 32%,Uavgjort 24%,Carmarthen vunnet 44%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.93 · Over 2.5 56% · Current selection Over