Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
61% / 27% / 12%Match resultHome win61%1.64
Derived from 1X2 · excludes America MG (W) win (12.2%)Double chance1X87.8%1.14
Over 37% · Under 63%Goals 2.5Under63%1.59
Yes 26% · No 74%Both teams scoreNo74%1.35
2.16 total expected goalsCorrect score2–0——
9.8 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5——
Probability view
Forecast probabilities and fair odds
No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.
OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Fluminense (W) win61%1.64
Draw27%3.70
America MG (W) win12%8.33
Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 82.9%
Total expected goals2.16Low-scoring
Dedicated goals model: Over 37% · Under 63%
Away share of expected goals 17.1%
Projected score2–0BTTS splitYes 26% · No 74%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
1.40pts / matchFluminense (W)
WWLDL
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7
SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5
Away-context · form sequence
0.80pts / matchAmerica MG (W)
DLLWL
Played5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4
SignalHome failed to score: 2/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
61%
Win probability excluding draw
12%7
Points from supplied form
41.79
Expected goals
0.37Fluminense (W)America MG (W)
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 27%.
Match questions
Fluminense (W) vs America MG (W) FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–0 · 61% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Fluminense (W) win 61%，Draw 27%，America MG (W) win 12%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 2.16 · Over 2.5 37% · Current selection Under。