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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Fixture ·

Universidad Guadalajara vs Piratas

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–11.65 expected goals
Away form
Home win32%
Draw35%
Away win33%
Full model forecastDrawTier A · 35% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans DRAW Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callDraw35% selection probability
Projected score1–1Universidad GuadalajaraPiratas
Expected goals1.65Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under77% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo68% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
32% / 35% / 33%Match resultDraw35%2.86
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Universidad Guadalajara win (31.8%)Double chanceX268.2%1.47
Over 23% · Under 77%Goals 2.5Under77%1.30
Yes 32% · No 68%Both teams scoreNo68%1.47
1.65 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
9.7 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Universidad Guadalajara win32%3.13
Draw35%2.86
Piratas win33%3.03

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Universidad Guadalajara0.81

Home share of expected goals 49.1%

Total expected goals1.65Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 23% · Under 77%

Piratas0.84

Away share of expected goals 50.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 32% · No 68%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Universidad Guadalajara

2.40pts / match
Played5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Points12

SignalHome unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Piratas

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
32%
Win probability excluding draw
33%
12
Points from supplied form
7
0.81
Expected goals
0.84
Universidad GuadalajaraPiratas
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans DRAW

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Universidad Guadalajara signalHome unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Piratas signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk65% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 35%.

Match questions

Universidad Guadalajara vs Piratas FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Draw · Projected score 1–1 · 35% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Universidad Guadalajara win 32%,Draw 35%,Piratas win 33%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.65 · Over 2.5 23% · Current selection Under