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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Fixture ·

Tlaxcala FC vs Venados FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–23.73 expected goals
Away form
Home win36%
Draw25%
Away win38%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win38% selection probability
Projected score2–2Tlaxcala FCVenados FC
Expected goals3.73Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over72% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes72% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
36% / 25% / 38%Match resultAway win38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25.4%)Double chance1274.6%1.34
Over 72% · Under 28%Goals 2.5Over72%1.39
Yes 72% · No 28%Both teams scoreYes72%1.39
3.73 total expected goalsCorrect score2–2
9.3 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Tlaxcala FC win36%2.78
Draw25%4.00
Venados FC win38%2.63

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Tlaxcala FC1.82

Home share of expected goals 48.8%

Total expected goals3.73Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 72% · Under 28%

Venados FC1.91

Away share of expected goals 51.2%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitYes 72% · No 28%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Tlaxcala FC

0.20pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Points1

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Venados FC

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalAway unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Win probability excluding draw
38%
1
Points from supplied form
10
1.82
Expected goals
1.91
Tlaxcala FCVenados FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Tlaxcala FC signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Venados FC signalAway unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Tlaxcala FC vs Venados FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 2–2 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Tlaxcala FC win 36%,Draw 25%,Venados FC win 38%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.73 · Over 2.5 72% · Current selection Over