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MEX Mexiko - Liga de Expansion · Match ·

Universidad Guadalajara vs Piratas

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–11.65 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger32%
Oavgjort35%
Bortaseger33%
Full model forecastOavgjortTier A · 35% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans DRAW Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callOavgjort35% selection probability
Projected score1–1Universidad GuadalajaraPiratas
Expected goals1.65Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under77% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej68% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
32% / 35% / 33%MatchresultatOavgjort35%2.86
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Universidad Guadalajara win (31.8%)DubbelchansX268.2%1.47
Över 23% · Under 77%Goals 2.5Under77%1.30
Ja 32% · Nej 68%Båda lagen gör målNej68%1.47
1.65 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.7 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Universidad Guadalajara win32%3.13
Oavgjort35%2.86
Piratas win33%3.03

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Universidad Guadalajara0.81

Hemma share of expected goals 49.1%

Total expected goals1.65Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Över 23% · Under 77%

Piratas0.84

Borta share of expected goals 50.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 32% · Nej 68%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Universidad Guadalajara

2.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Poäng12

SignalHemma unbeaten 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Piratas

1.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poäng7

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
32%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
33%
12
Points from supplied form
7
0.81
Expected goals
0.84
Universidad GuadalajaraPiratas
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans DRAW

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Universidad Guadalajara signalHemma unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Piratas signalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk65% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 35%.

Match questions

Universidad Guadalajara vs Piratas FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Oavgjort · Projected score 1–1 · 35% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Universidad Guadalajara vunnen 32%,Oavgjort 35%,Piratas vunnen 33%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.65 · Över 2.5 23% · Current selection Under