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LTU Lithuania A Lyga · Round 20 ·

FK Dziugas Telsiai vs Suduva Marijampole

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.22 expected goals
Away form
Home win29%
Draw31%
Away win40%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 40% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win40% selection probability
Projected score1–1FK Dziugas TelsiaiSuduva Marijampole
Expected goals2.22Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under62% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo55% for the selected side
Expected corners8.8Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
29% / 31% / 40%Match resultAway win40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes FK Dziugas Telsiai win (29.4%)Double chanceX270.6%1.42
Over 38% · Under 62%Goals 2.5Under62%1.61
Yes 45% · No 55%Both teams scoreNo55%1.82
2.22 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
8.8 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
FK Dziugas Telsiai win29%3.45
Draw31%3.23
Suduva Marijampole win40%2.50

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FK Dziugas Telsiai0.96

Home share of expected goals 43.2%

Total expected goals2.22Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 38% · Under 62%

Suduva Marijampole1.26

Away share of expected goals 56.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 45% · No 55%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

FK Dziugas Telsiai

1.60pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Points8

SignalHome unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Suduva Marijampole

2.60pts / match
Played5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Points13

SignalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
29%
Win probability excluding draw
40%
8
Points from supplied form
13
0.96
Expected goals
1.26
FK Dziugas TelsiaiSuduva Marijampole
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FK Dziugas Telsiai signalHome unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Suduva Marijampole signalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

FK Dziugas Telsiai vs Suduva Marijampole FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FK Dziugas Telsiai win 29%,Draw 31%,Suduva Marijampole win 40%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.22 · Over 2.5 38% · Current selection Under