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AUS Australia Northern NSW Premier League · Fixture ·

Newcastle Olympic FC vs Valentine Phoenix

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–12.95 expected goals
Away form
Home win56%
Draw21%
Away win23%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 56% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win56% selection probability
Projected score2–1Newcastle Olympic FCValentine Phoenix
Expected goals2.95Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over57% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes53% for the selected side
Expected corners10.5Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
56% / 21% / 23%Match resultHome win56%1.79
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (21.3%)Double chance1278.7%1.27
Over 57% · Under 43%Goals 2.5Over57%1.75
Yes 53% · No 47%Both teams scoreYes53%1.89
2.95 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
10.5 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.9%Largest probability gapNewcastle Olympic FC winDifference+0.8 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Newcastle Olympic FC win56%1.791.6255.2%+0.8 pp
Draw21%4.764.2021.3%-0.3 pp
Valentine Phoenix win23%4.353.8023.5%-0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Newcastle Olympic FC2.02

Home share of expected goals 68.5%

Total expected goals2.95Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 57% · Under 43%

Valentine Phoenix0.93

Away share of expected goals 31.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 53% · No 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Newcastle Olympic FC

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Valentine Phoenix

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
56%
Win probability excluding draw
23%
7
Points from supplied form
7
2.02
Expected goals
0.93
Newcastle Olympic FCValentine Phoenix
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Newcastle Olympic FC signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Valentine Phoenix signalHome failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk44% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 21%.

Match questions

Newcastle Olympic FC vs Valentine Phoenix FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 56% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Newcastle Olympic FC win 56%,Draw 21%,Valentine Phoenix win 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.95 · Over 2.5 57% · Current selection Over