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CHN China Division 1 · Round 17 ·

Suzhou Dongwu vs Changchun Yatai

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.36 expected goals
Away form
Home win34%
Draw28%
Away win38%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win38% selection probability
Projected score1–1Suzhou DongwuChangchun Yatai
Expected goals2.36Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under58% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo52% for the selected side
Expected corners8.8Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
34% / 28% / 38%Match resultAway win38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.2%)Double chance1271.8%1.39
Over 42% · Under 58%Goals 2.5Under58%1.72
Yes 48% · No 52%Both teams scoreNo52%1.92
2.36 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
8.8 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin10.9%Largest probability gapChangchun Yatai winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Suzhou Dongwu win34%2.942.6334.3%-0.3 pp
Draw28%3.573.2028.2%-0.2 pp
Changchun Yatai win38%2.632.4037.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Suzhou Dongwu1.12

Home share of expected goals 47.5%

Total expected goals2.36Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 42% · Under 58%

Changchun Yatai1.24

Away share of expected goals 52.5%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 48% · No 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Suzhou Dongwu

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Points6

SignalHome unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Changchun Yatai

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome clean sheets: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
34%
Win probability excluding draw
38%
6
Points from supplied form
7
1.12
Expected goals
1.24
Suzhou DongwuChangchun Yatai
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Suzhou Dongwu signalHome unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Changchun Yatai signalHome clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Suzhou Dongwu vs Changchun Yatai FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Suzhou Dongwu win 34%,Draw 28%,Changchun Yatai win 38%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.36 · Over 2.5 42% · Current selection Under