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SVN Slovenia Prva Liga · Fixture ·

Aluminij Kidricevo vs NK Nafta 1903

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–12.95 expected goals
Away form
Home win44%
Draw24%
Away win31%
Baseline forecastHome winTier C · 44% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win44% selection probability
Projected score2–1Aluminij KidricevoNK Nafta 1903
Expected goals2.95Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over56% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes59% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
44% / 24% / 31%Match resultHome win44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.3%)Double chance1275.7%1.32
Over 56% · Under 44%Goals 2.5Over56%1.79
Yes 59% · No 41%Both teams scoreYes59%1.69
2.95 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
9.2 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Aluminij Kidricevo win44%2.27
Draw24%4.17
NK Nafta 1903 win31%3.23

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Aluminij Kidricevo1.62

Home share of expected goals 54.9%

Total expected goals2.95Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 56% · Under 44%

NK Nafta 19031.33

Away share of expected goals 45.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 59% · No 41%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Aluminij Kidricevo

0.40pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Points2

SignalHome failed to score: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

NK Nafta 1903

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalAway matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Win probability excluding draw
31%
2
Points from supplied form
6
1.62
Expected goals
1.33
Aluminij KidricevoNK Nafta 1903
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Aluminij Kidricevo signalHome failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02NK Nafta 1903 signalAway matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Aluminij Kidricevo vs NK Nafta 1903 FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Aluminij Kidricevo win 44%,Draw 24%,NK Nafta 1903 win 31%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.95 · Over 2.5 56% · Current selection Over