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DEU Germany Bundesliga II · Round 1 ·

Karlsruher SC vs Arminia Bielefeld

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–23.49 expected goals
Away form
Home win36%
Draw26%
Away win38%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win38% selection probability
Projected score2–2Karlsruher SCArminia Bielefeld
Expected goals3.49Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over68% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes68% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
36% / 26% / 38%Match resultAway win38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.3%)Double chance1273.7%1.36
Over 68% · Under 32%Goals 2.5Over68%1.47
Yes 68% · No 32%Both teams scoreYes68%1.47
3.49 total expected goalsCorrect score2–2
9.5 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.4%Largest probability gapKarlsruher SC winDifference+0.6 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Karlsruher SC win36%2.782.6335.4%+0.6 pp
Draw26%3.853.5026.6%-0.6 pp
Arminia Bielefeld win38%2.632.4538%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Karlsruher SC1.82

Home share of expected goals 52.1%

Total expected goals3.49Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 68% · Under 32%

Arminia Bielefeld1.67

Away share of expected goals 47.9%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitYes 68% · No 32%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Karlsruher SC

0.80pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

Arminia Bielefeld

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalAway unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Win probability excluding draw
38%
4
Points from supplied form
10
1.82
Expected goals
1.67
Karlsruher SCArminia Bielefeld
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Karlsruher SC signalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Arminia Bielefeld signalAway unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Karlsruher SC vs Arminia Bielefeld FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 2–2 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Karlsruher SC win 36%,Draw 26%,Arminia Bielefeld win 38%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.49 · Over 2.5 68% · Current selection Over