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LVA ラトビア ヴィルスリーガ · Round 25 ·

BFCダウガフピルス vs トゥクムス2000

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

ホーム form
Projected score2–12.88 expected goals
アウェイ form
ホーム勝利49%
引き分け25%
アウェイ勝利26%
Full model forecastホーム勝利Tier A · 49% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callホーム勝利49% selection probability
Projected score2–1BFCダウガフピルストゥクムス2000
Expected goals2.88Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5オーバー55% for the selected side
両チーム得点はい57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0アンダー 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

Market選択確率フェアオッズ
49% / 25% / 26%試合結果ホーム勝利49%2.04
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.9%)ダブルチャンス1275.1%1.33
オーバー 55% · アンダー 45%Goals 2.5オーバー55%1.82
はい 57% · いいえ 43%両チーム得点はい57%1.75
2.88 total expected goals正確なスコア2–1
9.0 expected match cornersコーナーアンダー 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.2%Largest probability gapBFCダウガフピルス winDifference+0.4 pp
Outcome予想フェアオッズReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
BFCダウガフピルス win49%2.041.8548.6%+0.4 pp
引き分け25%4.003.6025%0.0 pp
トゥクムス2000 win26%3.853.4026.4%-0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

BFCダウガフピルス1.72

ホーム share of expected goals 59.7%

Total expected goals2.88Balanced

Dedicated goals model: オーバー 55% · アンダー 45%

トゥクムス20001.16

アウェイ share of expected goals 40.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitはい 57% · いいえ 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

ホーム-context · form sequence

BFCダウガフピルス

1.80pts / match
試合数5Wins3Drawn0Losses2ポイント9

Signalホーム won 3/5

アウェイ-context · form sequence

トゥクムス2000

0.60pts / match
試合数5Wins1Drawn0Losses4ポイント3

Signalホーム matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
49%
勝ち probability excluding draw
26%
9
Points from supplied form
3
1.72
Expected goals
1.16
BFCダウガフピルストゥクムス2000
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01BFCダウガフピルス signalホーム won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02トゥクムス2000 signalホーム matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk51% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. 引き分け probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

BFCダウガフピルス vs トゥクムス2000 FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: ホーム勝利 · Projected score 2–1 · 49% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

BFCダウガフピルス 勝ち 49%,引き分け 25%,トゥクムス2000 勝ち 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.88 · オーバー 2.5 55% · Current selection オーバー