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LVA Lettland - Virsliga · Round 25 ·

BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums 2000

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–12.88 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg49%
Unentschieden25%
Auswärtssieg26%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 49% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg49% selection probability
Projected score2–1BFC DaugavpilsTukums 2000
Expected goals2.88Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Über55% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
49% / 25% / 26%SpielergebnisHeimsieg49%2.04
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.9%)Doppelte Chance1275.1%1.33
Über 55% · Unter 45%Goals 2.5Über55%1.82
Ja 57% · Nein 43%Beide Teams treffenJa57%1.75
2.88 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
9.0 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.2%Largest probability gapBFC Daugavpils winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
BFC Daugavpils win49%2.041.8548.6%+0.4 pp
Unentschieden25%4.003.6025%0.0 pp
Tukums 2000 win26%3.853.4026.4%-0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

BFC Daugavpils1.72

Heim share of expected goals 59.7%

Total expected goals2.88Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 55% · Unter 45%

Tukums 20001.16

Auswärts share of expected goals 40.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 57% · Nein 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

BFC Daugavpils

1.80pts / match
Gespielt5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Punkte9

SignalHeim won 3/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Tukums 2000

0.60pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Punkte3

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
49%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
26%
9
Points from supplied form
3
1.72
Expected goals
1.16
BFC DaugavpilsTukums 2000
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01BFC Daugavpils signalHeim won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Tukums 2000 signalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk51% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums 2000 FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 49% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

BFC Daugavpils Gewinn 49%,Unentschieden 25%,Tukums 2000 Gewinn 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.88 · Über 2.5 55% · Current selection Über