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LTU Lithuania 1 Lyga · Partita ·

BFA Vilnius vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–22.71 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa41%
Pareggio26%
Vittoria ospite33%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa41% selection probability
Projected score1–2BFA VilniusFK Neptunas Klaipeda
Expected goals2.71Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra51% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnano55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
41% / 26% / 33%Esito partitaVittoria casa41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25.7%)Doppia Chance1274.3%1.35
Sopra 51% · Sotto 49%Goals 2.5Sopra51%1.96
Sì 55% · No 45%Entrambe le squadre segnano55%1.82
2.71 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–2
9.3 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.9%Largest probability gapBFA Vilnius winDifference-1.6 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
BFA Vilnius win41%2.442.1042.6%-1.6 pp
Pareggio26%3.853.5025.5%+0.5 pp
FK Neptunas Klaipeda win33%3.032.8031.9%+1.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

BFA Vilnius1.17

Casa share of expected goals 43.2%

Total expected goals2.71Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 51% · Sotto 49%

FK Neptunas Klaipeda1.54

Trasferta share of expected goals 56.8%

Projected score1–2BTTS split 55% · No 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

BFA Vilnius

2.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punti10

SignalCasa unbeaten 4/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

FK Neptunas Klaipeda

2.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punti10

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
41%
Vinta probability excluding draw
33%
10
Points from supplied form
10
1.17
Expected goals
1.54
BFA VilniusFK Neptunas Klaipeda
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01BFA Vilnius signalCasa unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FK Neptunas Klaipeda signalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

BFA Vilnius vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 1–2 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

BFA Vilnius vinta 41%,Pareggio 26%,FK Neptunas Klaipeda vinta 33%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.71 · Sopra 2.5 51% · Current selection Sopra