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LTU Lithuania 1 Lyga · Round 20 ·

FK Jonava vs FA Siauliai II

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–12.83 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa61%
Pareggio24%
Vittoria ospite15%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 61% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa61% selection probability
Projected score2–1FK JonavaFA Siauliai II
Expected goals2.83Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra54% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Sopra 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
61% / 24% / 15%Esito partitaVittoria casa61%1.64
Derived from 1X2 · excludes FA Siauliai II win (15.2%)Doppia Chance1X84.8%1.18
Sopra 54% · Sotto 46%Goals 2.5Sopra54%1.85
Sì 43% · No 57%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo57%1.75
2.83 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–1
9.8 expected match cornersCornerSopra 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
FK Jonava win61%1.64
Pareggio24%4.17
FA Siauliai II win15%6.67

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FK Jonava2.18

Casa share of expected goals 77%

Total expected goals2.83Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 54% · Sotto 46%

FA Siauliai II0.65

Trasferta share of expected goals 23%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 43% · No 57%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

FK Jonava

1.20pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punti6

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

FA Siauliai II

0.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punti4

SignalCasa clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
61%
Vinta probability excluding draw
15%
6
Points from supplied form
4
2.18
Expected goals
0.65
FK JonavaFA Siauliai II
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FK Jonava signalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FA Siauliai II signalCasa clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk39% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

FK Jonava vs FA Siauliai II FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 2–1 · 61% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FK Jonava vinta 61%,Pareggio 24%,FA Siauliai II vinta 15%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.83 · Sopra 2.5 54% · Current selection Sopra