Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
40% / 31% / 29%Match resultHome win40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Sport Recife win (28.7%)Double chance1X71.3%1.40
Over 46% · Under 54%Goals 2.5Under54%1.85
Yes 51% · No 49%Both teams scoreYes51%1.96
2.50 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1——
10.3 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5——
Price comparison
Published forecast vs reference market
Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.
Displayed margin7.1%Largest probability gapSport Recife winDifference+0.7 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Vila Nova win40%2.502.3040.6%-0.6 pp
Draw31%3.233.0031.1%-0.1 pp
Sport Recife win29%3.453.3028.3%+0.7 pp
Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 52%
Total expected goals2.50Balanced
Dedicated goals model: Over 46% · Under 54%
Away share of expected goals 48%
Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 51% · No 49%Match profileBalanced
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
1.20pts / matchVila Nova
LWLLW
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6
SignalHome failed to score: 3/5
Away-context · form sequence
0.80pts / matchSport Recife
DDDDL
Played5Wins0Drawn4Losses1Points4
SignalAway unbeaten 4/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
40%
Win probability excluding draw
29%6
Points from supplied form
41.30
Expected goals
1.20Vila NovaSport Recife
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Model and market agree on HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 31%.
Match questions
Vila Nova vs Sport Recife FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 40% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Vila Nova win 40%，Draw 31%，Sport Recife win 29%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 2.50 · Over 2.5 46% · Current selection Under。