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MLT Malta Premier League · Final ·

Valletta vs Saint Patrick FC Zabbar

Prediction review

Home form
Final score4–2Forecast 2–1
Away form
Home win53%
Draw29%
Away win18%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 53% selection probability
Prediction Won
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win53% selection probability
Projected score2–1VallettaSaint Patrick FC Zabbar
Expected goals2.20Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under62% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo64% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
53% / 29% / 18%Match resultHome win53%1.89
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Saint Patrick FC Zabbar win (18.2%)Double chance1X81.8%1.22
Over 38% · Under 62%Goals 2.5Under62%1.61
Yes 36% · No 64%Both teams scoreNo64%1.56
2.20 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
9.8 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Valletta win53%1.89
Draw29%3.45
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar win18%5.56

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Valletta1.61

Home share of expected goals 73.2%

Total expected goals2.20Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 38% · Under 62%

Saint Patrick FC Zabbar0.59

Away share of expected goals 26.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 36% · No 64%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Valletta

0.80pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Saint Patrick FC Zabbar

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Points6

SignalHome failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
53%
Win probability excluding draw
18%
4
Points from supplied form
6
1.61
Expected goals
0.59
VallettaSaint Patrick FC Zabbar
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Valletta signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Saint Patrick FC Zabbar signalHome failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk47% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Valletta vs Saint Patrick FC Zabbar FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 53% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Valletta win 53%,Draw 29%,Saint Patrick FC Zabbar win 18%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.20 · Over 2.5 38% · Current selection Under