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POL Poland III Liga · Fixture ·

Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs Victoria Wrzesnia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–13.12 expected goals
Away form
Home win64%
Draw20%
Away win16%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 64% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win64% selection probability
Projected score2–1Polonia Sroda WlkpVictoria Wrzesnia
Expected goals3.12Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over60% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo50% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
64% / 20% / 16%Match resultHome win64%1.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Victoria Wrzesnia win (15.8%)Double chance1X84.2%1.19
Over 60% · Under 40%Goals 2.5Over60%1.67
Yes 50% · No 50%Both teams scoreNo50%2.00
3.12 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
10.3 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.7%Largest probability gapPolonia Sroda Wlkp winDifference+1.0 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Polonia Sroda Wlkp win64%1.561.4263%+1.0 pp
Draw20%5.004.3320.7%-0.7 pp
Victoria Wrzesnia win16%6.255.5016.3%-0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Polonia Sroda Wlkp2.33

Home share of expected goals 74.7%

Total expected goals3.12Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 60% · Under 40%

Victoria Wrzesnia0.79

Away share of expected goals 25.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 50% · No 50%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Polonia Sroda Wlkp

2.40pts / match
Played5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Points12

SignalHome unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Victoria Wrzesnia

0.60pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Points3

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
64%
Win probability excluding draw
16%
12
Points from supplied form
3
2.33
Expected goals
0.79
Polonia Sroda WlkpVictoria Wrzesnia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Polonia Sroda Wlkp signalHome unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Victoria Wrzesnia signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk36% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs Victoria Wrzesnia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 64% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Polonia Sroda Wlkp win 64%,Draw 20%,Victoria Wrzesnia win 16%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.12 · Over 2.5 60% · Current selection Over