Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
41% / 32% / 27%Match resultHome win41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes UD da Serra win (26.8%)Double chance1X73.2%1.37
Over 34% · Under 66%Goals 2.5Under66%1.52
Yes 41% · No 59%Both teams scoreNo59%1.69
2.08 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1——
9.0 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5——
Probability view
Forecast probabilities and fair odds
No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.
OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Naval 1893 win41%2.44
Draw32%3.13
UD da Serra win27%3.70
Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 60.1%
Total expected goals2.08Low-scoring
Dedicated goals model: Over 34% · Under 66%
Away share of expected goals 39.9%
Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 41% · No 59%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
2.60pts / matchNaval 1893
WDWWW
Played5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Points13
SignalHome unbeaten 5/5
Away-context · form sequence
1.40pts / matchUD da Serra
LWLDW
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7
SignalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
41%
Win probability excluding draw
27%13
Points from supplied form
71.25
Expected goals
0.83Naval 1893UD da Serra
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 32%.
Match questions
Naval 1893 vs UD da Serra FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 41% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Naval 1893 win 41%，Draw 32%，UD da Serra win 27%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 2.08 · Over 2.5 34% · Current selection Under。