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INT Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Fixture ·

SD Aucas vs Leones FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.25 expected goals
Away form
Home win54%
Draw28%
Away win19%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 54% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win54% selection probability
Projected score1–1SD AucasLeones FC
Expected goals2.25Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under61% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
54% / 28% / 19%Match resultHome win54%1.85
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Leones FC win (18.6%)Double chance1X81.4%1.23
Over 39% · Under 61%Goals 2.5Under61%1.64
Yes 46% · No 54%Both teams scoreNo54%1.85
2.25 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
9.0 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.3%Largest probability gapLeones FC winDifference+1.2 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
SD Aucas win54%1.851.7054.8%-0.8 pp
Draw28%3.573.4027.4%+0.6 pp
Leones FC win19%5.265.2517.8%+1.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

SD Aucas1.24

Home share of expected goals 55.1%

Total expected goals2.25Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 39% · Under 61%

Leones FC1.01

Away share of expected goals 44.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 46% · No 54%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

SD Aucas

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Leones FC

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Points9

SignalHome clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
54%
Win probability excluding draw
19%
6
Points from supplied form
9
1.24
Expected goals
1.01
SD AucasLeones FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01SD Aucas signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Leones FC signalHome clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk46% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

SD Aucas vs Leones FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 54% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

SD Aucas win 54%,Draw 28%,Leones FC win 19%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.25 · Over 2.5 39% · Current selection Under