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POL Poland III Liga · Fixture ·

Warta Gorzow vs Carina Gubin

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–23.44 expected goals
Away form
Home win43%
Draw25%
Away win32%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win43% selection probability
Projected score2–2Warta GorzowCarina Gubin
Expected goals3.44Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over67% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes67% for the selected side
Expected corners10.5Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
43% / 25% / 32%Match resultHome win43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.9%)Double chance1275.1%1.33
Over 67% · Under 33%Goals 2.5Over67%1.49
Yes 67% · No 33%Both teams scoreYes67%1.49
3.44 total expected goalsCorrect score2–2
10.5 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.0%Largest probability gapWarta Gorzow winDifference-0.9 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Warta Gorzow win43%2.332.0543.9%-0.9 pp
Draw25%4.003.6025%0.0 pp
Carina Gubin win32%3.132.9031.1%+0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Warta Gorzow1.63

Home share of expected goals 47.4%

Total expected goals3.44Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 67% · Under 33%

Carina Gubin1.81

Away share of expected goals 52.6%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitYes 67% · No 33%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Warta Gorzow

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalHome clean sheets: 2/5

Away-context · form sequence

Carina Gubin

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalAway matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Win probability excluding draw
32%
6
Points from supplied form
7
1.63
Expected goals
1.81
Warta GorzowCarina Gubin
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Warta Gorzow signalHome clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Carina Gubin signalAway matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Warta Gorzow vs Carina Gubin FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–2 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Warta Gorzow win 43%,Draw 25%,Carina Gubin win 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.44 · Over 2.5 67% · Current selection Over