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SWE Sweden 1.div Södra · Fixture ·

Ariana FC Malmo vs Trelleborgs FF

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–23.00 expected goals
Away form
Home win34%
Draw25%
Away win41%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win41% selection probability
Projected score1–2Ariana FC MalmoTrelleborgs FF
Expected goals3.00Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over58% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes60% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
34% / 25% / 41%Match resultAway win41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.9%)Double chance1275.1%1.33
Over 58% · Under 42%Goals 2.5Over58%1.72
Yes 60% · No 40%Both teams scoreYes60%1.67
3.00 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
9.6 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.7%Largest probability gapAriana FC Malmo winDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Ariana FC Malmo win34%2.942.6034.4%-0.4 pp
Draw25%4.003.6024.9%+0.1 pp
Trelleborgs FF win41%2.442.2040.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Ariana FC Malmo1.37

Home share of expected goals 45.7%

Total expected goals3.00Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 58% · Under 42%

Trelleborgs FF1.63

Away share of expected goals 54.3%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 60% · No 40%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Ariana FC Malmo

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalHome unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Trelleborgs FF

2.20pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Points11

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
34%
Win probability excluding draw
41%
10
Points from supplied form
11
1.37
Expected goals
1.63
Ariana FC MalmoTrelleborgs FF
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Ariana FC Malmo signalHome unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Trelleborgs FF signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Ariana FC Malmo vs Trelleborgs FF FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Ariana FC Malmo win 34%,Draw 25%,Trelleborgs FF win 41%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.00 · Over 2.5 58% · Current selection Over