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SWE Sverige - Ettan Södra · Match ·

Ariana FC Malmö vs Trelleborgs FF

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–23.00 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger34%
Oavgjort25%
Bortaseger41%
Full model forecastBortasegerTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callBortaseger41% selection probability
Projected score1–2Ariana FC MalmöTrelleborgs FF
Expected goals3.00Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Över58% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa60% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
34% / 25% / 41%MatchresultatBortaseger41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.9%)Dubbelchans1275.1%1.33
Över 58% · Under 42%Goals 2.5Över58%1.72
Ja 60% · Nej 40%Båda lagen gör målJa60%1.67
3.00 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–2
9.6 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.7%Largest probability gapAriana FC Malmö winDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Ariana FC Malmö win34%2.942.6034.4%-0.4 pp
Oavgjort25%4.003.6024.9%+0.1 pp
Trelleborgs FF win41%2.442.2040.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Ariana FC Malmö1.37

Hemma share of expected goals 45.7%

Total expected goals3.00Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 58% · Under 42%

Trelleborgs FF1.63

Borta share of expected goals 54.3%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitJa 60% · Nej 40%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Ariana FC Malmö

2.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Poäng10

SignalHemma unbeaten 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Trelleborgs FF

2.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Poäng11

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
34%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
41%
10
Points from supplied form
11
1.37
Expected goals
1.63
Ariana FC MalmöTrelleborgs FF
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Ariana FC Malmö signalHemma unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Trelleborgs FF signalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Ariana FC Malmö vs Trelleborgs FF FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Bortaseger · Projected score 1–2 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Ariana FC Malmö vunnen 34%,Oavgjort 25%,Trelleborgs FF vunnen 41%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.00 · Över 2.5 58% · Current selection Över