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ISL Iceland 4 Deild · Fixture ·

Hamar Hveragerdi vs Alafoss

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–23.74 expected goals
Away form
Home win43%
Draw21%
Away win35%
Baseline forecastHome winTier C · 43% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win43% selection probability
Projected score2–2Hamar HveragerdiAlafoss
Expected goals3.74Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over72% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes71% for the selected side
Expected corners12.1Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
43% / 21% / 35%Match resultHome win43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (21.4%)Double chance1278.6%1.27
Over 72% · Under 28%Goals 2.5Over72%1.39
Yes 71% · No 29%Both teams scoreYes71%1.41
3.74 total expected goalsCorrect score2–2
12.1 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Hamar Hveragerdi win43%2.33
Draw21%4.76
Alafoss win35%2.86

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Hamar Hveragerdi1.97

Home share of expected goals 52.7%

Total expected goals3.74Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 72% · Under 28%

Alafoss1.77

Away share of expected goals 47.3%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitYes 71% · No 29%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Hamar Hveragerdi

2.60pts / match
Played5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Points13

SignalHome unbeaten 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

Alafoss

0.80pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Win probability excluding draw
35%
13
Points from supplied form
4
1.97
Expected goals
1.77
Hamar HveragerdiAlafoss
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Hamar Hveragerdi signalHome unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Alafoss signalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 21%.

Match questions

Hamar Hveragerdi vs Alafoss FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–2 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Hamar Hveragerdi win 43%,Draw 21%,Alafoss win 35%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.74 · Over 2.5 72% · Current selection Over