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ISL Iceland 4 Deild · Round 15 ·

Ellidi vs Arborg

Market-based forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–23.73 expected goals
Away form
Home win25%
Draw20%
Away win56%
Market-based forecastAway winTier B · 56% selection probability
Market-based forecast · Tier B

Match prediction

Market-led fallback leans AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win56% selection probability
Projected score2–2EllidiArborg
Expected goals3.73Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over72% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes71% for the selected side
Expected corners11.8Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
25% / 20% / 56%Match resultAway win56%1.79
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (19.5%)Double chance1280.5%1.24
Over 72% · Under 28%Goals 2.5Over72%1.39
Yes 71% · No 29%Both teams scoreYes71%1.41
3.73 total expected goalsCorrect score2–2
11.8 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Reference market used for this forecast

This market-based forecast is aligned to the normalized pre-match 1X2 reference. The comparison is contextual and makes no betting-edge claim.

Displayed margin10.4%Forecast sourceMarket-basedEdge claimNone
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Ellidi win25%4.003.9023.2%
Draw20%5.004.7519.1%
Arborg win56%1.791.5757.7%

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Ellidi1.60

Home share of expected goals 42.9%

Total expected goals3.73Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 72% · Under 28%

Arborg2.13

Away share of expected goals 57.1%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitYes 71% · No 29%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Ellidi

1.00pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Arborg

2.40pts / match
Played5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Points12

SignalAway unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
25%
Win probability excluding draw
56%
5
Points from supplied form
12
1.60
Expected goals
2.13
EllidiArborg
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-led fallback leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Ellidi signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Arborg signalAway unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk44% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

Ellidi vs Arborg FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 2–2 · 56% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Ellidi win 25%,Draw 20%,Arborg win 56%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.73 · Over 2.5 72% · Current selection Over