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AUS Australia South Australia State League Reserves · Fixture ·

Modbury Jets Reserves vs Adelaide Cobras Reserves

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–13.04 expected goals
Away form
Home win48%
Draw26%
Away win26%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 48% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win48% selection probability
Projected score2–1Modbury Jets ReservesAdelaide Cobras Reserves
Expected goals3.04Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over59% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes58% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
48% / 26% / 26%Match resultHome win48%2.08
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Adelaide Cobras Reserves win (25.7%)Double chance1X74.3%1.35
Over 59% · Under 41%Goals 2.5Over59%1.69
Yes 58% · No 42%Both teams scoreYes58%1.72
3.04 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
9.8 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Modbury Jets Reserves win48%2.08
Draw26%3.85
Adelaide Cobras Reserves win26%3.85

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Modbury Jets Reserves1.90

Home share of expected goals 62.5%

Total expected goals3.04Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 59% · Under 41%

Adelaide Cobras Reserves1.14

Away share of expected goals 37.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 58% · No 42%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Modbury Jets Reserves

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Points9

SignalHome won 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Adelaide Cobras Reserves

1.00pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
48%
Win probability excluding draw
26%
9
Points from supplied form
5
1.90
Expected goals
1.14
Modbury Jets ReservesAdelaide Cobras Reserves
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Modbury Jets Reserves signalHome won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Adelaide Cobras Reserves signalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk52% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Modbury Jets Reserves vs Adelaide Cobras Reserves FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 48% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Modbury Jets Reserves win 48%,Draw 26%,Adelaide Cobras Reserves win 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.04 · Over 2.5 59% · Current selection Over