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SCO Scotland Premiership · Fixture ·

Dundee vs Aberdeen

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.35 expected goals
Away form
Home win36%
Draw27%
Away win36%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 36% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win36% selection probability
Projected score1–1DundeeAberdeen
Expected goals2.35Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under58% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
36% / 27% / 36%Match resultHome win36%2.78
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.1%)Double chance1272.9%1.37
Over 42% · Under 58%Goals 2.5Under58%1.72
Yes 48% · No 52%Both teams scoreNo52%1.92
2.35 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
9.7 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.8%Largest probability gapAberdeen winDifference-1.1 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Dundee win36%2.782.6335.9%+0.1 pp
Draw27%3.703.5027%0.0 pp
Aberdeen win36%2.782.5537.1%-1.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Dundee1.30

Home share of expected goals 55.3%

Total expected goals2.35Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 42% · Under 58%

Aberdeen1.05

Away share of expected goals 44.7%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 48% · No 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Dundee

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Aberdeen

2.40pts / match
Played5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Points12

SignalHome clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Win probability excluding draw
36%
7
Points from supplied form
12
1.30
Expected goals
1.05
DundeeAberdeen
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Dundee signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Aberdeen signalHome clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk64% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Dundee vs Aberdeen FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 36% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Dundee win 36%,Draw 27%,Aberdeen win 36%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.35 · Over 2.5 42% · Current selection Under