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BRA Brésil - Paulista B · Match ·

America SP - U23 vs Independente SP - U23

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score1–11.66 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile34%
Nul29%
Victoire à l’extérieur37%
Full model forecastVictoire à l’extérieurTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à l’extérieur37% selection probability
Projected score1–1America SP - U23Independente SP - U23
Expected goals1.66Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de77% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentNon68% for the selected side
Expected corners8.5Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
34% / 29% / 37%Résultat du matchVictoire à l’extérieur37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.5%)Double chance1270.5%1.42
Plus de 23% · Moins de 77%Goals 2.5Moins de77%1.30
Oui 32% · Non 68%Les deux équipes marquentNon68%1.47
1.66 total expected goalsScore exact1–1
8.5 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.3%Largest probability gapAmerica SP - U23 winDifference+0.7 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
America SP - U23 win34%2.942.7033.3%+0.7 pp
Nul29%3.453.1029%0.0 pp
Independente SP - U23 win37%2.702.3837.7%-0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

America SP - U230.93

Domicile share of expected goals 56%

Total expected goals1.66Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 23% · Moins de 77%

Independente SP - U230.73

Extérieur share of expected goals 44%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitOui 32% · Non 68%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

America SP - U23

2.20pts / match
Joués5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Points11

SignalDomicile unbeaten 5/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Independente SP - U23

3.00pts / match
Joués5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Points15

SignalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
34%
Gagné probability excluding draw
37%
11
Points from supplied form
15
0.93
Expected goals
0.73
America SP - U23Independente SP - U23
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01America SP - U23 signalDomicile unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Independente SP - U23 signalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

America SP - U23 vs Independente SP - U23 FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à l’extérieur · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

America SP - U23 victoire 34%,Nul 29%,Independente SP - U23 victoire 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.66 · Plus de 2.5 23% · Current selection Moins de