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JPN Japon - J-League · Round 1 ·

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score1–12.40 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile31%
Nul29%
Victoire à l’extérieur39%
Full model forecastVictoire à l’extérieurTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à l’extérieur39% selection probability
Projected score1–1V-Varen NagasakiKyoto Sanga FC
Expected goals2.40Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de57% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentNon51% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Plus de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
31% / 29% / 39%Résultat du matchVictoire à l’extérieur39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.3%)Double chance1270.7%1.41
Plus de 43% · Moins de 57%Goals 2.5Moins de57%1.75
Oui 49% · Non 51%Les deux équipes marquentNon51%1.96
2.40 total expected goalsScore exact1–1
10.2 expected match cornersCornersPlus de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.3%Largest probability gapV-Varen Nagasaki winDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
V-Varen Nagasaki win31%3.233.0031.4%-0.4 pp
Nul29%3.453.2029.4%-0.4 pp
Kyoto Sanga FC win39%2.562.4039.2%-0.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

V-Varen Nagasaki1.10

Domicile share of expected goals 45.8%

Total expected goals2.40Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 43% · Moins de 57%

Kyoto Sanga FC1.30

Extérieur share of expected goals 54.2%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitOui 49% · Non 51%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

V-Varen Nagasaki

0.80pts / match
Joués5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalDomicile matches over 2.5: 4/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Kyoto Sanga FC

0.80pts / match
Joués5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalExtérieur failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
31%
Gagné probability excluding draw
39%
4
Points from supplied form
4
1.10
Expected goals
1.30
V-Varen NagasakiKyoto Sanga FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01V-Varen Nagasaki signalDomicile matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Kyoto Sanga FC signalExtérieur failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à l’extérieur · Projected score 1–1 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

V-Varen Nagasaki victoire 31%,Nul 29%,Kyoto Sanga FC victoire 39%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.40 · Plus de 2.5 43% · Current selection Moins de