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ENG Inglismaa National League North · Mäng ·

Merthyr Town vs Hednesford

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Kodu form
Projected score2–13.01 expected goals
Võõras form
Koduvõit43%
Viik24%
Võõrsilvõit33%
Baseline forecastKoduvõitTier C · 43% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callKoduvõit43% selection probability
Projected score2–1Merthyr TownHednesford
Expected goals3.01Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Üle58% for the selected side
Mõlemad meeskonnad löövad väravaJah60% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Üle 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValikTõenäosusÕiglane koefitsient
43% / 24% / 33%Mängu tulemusKoduvõit43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24%)Topeltvõimalus1276%1.32
Üle 58% · Alla 42%Goals 2.5Üle58%1.72
Jah 60% · Ei 40%Mõlemad meeskonnad löövad väravaJah60%1.67
3.01 total expected goalsTäpne skoor2–1
10.0 expected match cornersNurgalöögidÜle 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Ei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityÕiglane koefitsient
Merthyr Town win43%2.33
Viik24%4.17
Hednesford win33%3.03

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Merthyr Town1.63

Kodu share of expected goals 54.2%

Total expected goals3.01Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Üle 58% · Alla 42%

Hednesford1.38

Võõras share of expected goals 45.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJah 60% · Ei 40%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Kodu-context · form sequence

Merthyr Town

0.60pts / match
Mängitud5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Punktid3

SignalKodu matches over 2.5: 5/5

Võõras-context · form sequence

Hednesford

2.60pts / match
Mängitud5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Punktid13

SignalVõõras unbeaten 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Võit probability excluding draw
33%
3
Points from supplied form
13
1.63
Expected goals
1.38
Merthyr TownHednesford
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Merthyr Town signalKodu matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Hednesford signalVõõras unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Viik probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Merthyr Town vs Hednesford FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Koduvõit · Projected score 2–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Merthyr Town võit 43%,Viik 24%,Hednesford võit 33%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.01 · Üle 2.5 58% · Current selection Üle