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INT Perú - Liga 1 · Partido ·

Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score2–12.25 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local54%
Empate28%
Victoria visitante18%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 54% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local54% selection probability
Projected score2–1Alianza LimaDeportivo Garcilaso
Expected goals2.25Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Menos de61% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcanNo63% for the selected side
Expected corners7.6Menos de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
54% / 28% / 18%Resultado del partidoVictoria local54%1.85
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Deportivo Garcilaso win (17.9%)Doble Oportunidad1X82.1%1.22
Más de 39% · Menos de 61%Goals 2.5Menos de61%1.64
Sí 37% · No 63%Ambos equipos marcanNo63%1.59
2.25 total expected goalsMarcador exacto2–1
7.6 expected match cornersCórnersMenos de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCuotas justas
Alianza Lima win54%1.85
Empate28%3.57
Deportivo Garcilaso win18%5.56

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Alianza Lima1.66

Local share of expected goals 73.8%

Total expected goals2.25Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Más de 39% · Menos de 61%

Deportivo Garcilaso0.59

Visitante share of expected goals 26.2%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 37% · No 63%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Alianza Lima

1.80pts / match
Jugados5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Puntos9

SignalLocal unbeaten 5/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Deportivo Garcilaso

2.60pts / match
Jugados5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Puntos13

SignalVisitante unbeaten 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
54%
Ganado probability excluding draw
18%
9
Points from supplied form
13
1.66
Expected goals
0.59
Alianza LimaDeportivo Garcilaso
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Alianza Lima signalLocal unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Deportivo Garcilaso signalVisitante unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk46% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 2–1 · 54% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Alianza Lima ganada 54%,Empate 28%,Deportivo Garcilaso ganada 18%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.25 · Más de 2.5 39% · Current selection Menos de