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CHL Chile - Tercera División · Partido ·

Naval Talcahuano vs Club Aguara

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score2–12.93 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local52%
Empate25%
Victoria visitante23%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 52% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local52% selection probability
Projected score2–1Naval TalcahuanoClub Aguara
Expected goals2.93Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Más de56% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcan59% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Más de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
52% / 25% / 23%Resultado del partidoVictoria local52%1.92
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Club Aguara win (22.9%)Doble Oportunidad1X77.1%1.30
Más de 56% · Menos de 44%Goals 2.5Más de56%1.79
Sí 59% · No 41%Ambos equipos marcan59%1.69
2.93 total expected goalsMarcador exacto2–1
10.2 expected match cornersCórnersMás de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.6%Largest probability gapNaval Talcahuano winDifference-0.7 pp
OutcomePronósticoCuotas justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Naval Talcahuano win52%1.921.7052.7%-0.7 pp
Empate25%4.003.6024.9%+0.1 pp
Club Aguara win23%4.354.0022.4%+0.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Naval Talcahuano1.64

Local share of expected goals 56%

Total expected goals2.93Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Más de 56% · Menos de 44%

Club Aguara1.29

Visitante share of expected goals 44%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 59% · No 41%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Naval Talcahuano

2.20pts / match
Jugados5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Puntos11

SignalLocal unbeaten 5/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Club Aguara

1.20pts / match
Jugados5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Puntos6

SignalVisitante unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
52%
Ganado probability excluding draw
23%
11
Points from supplied form
6
1.64
Expected goals
1.29
Naval TalcahuanoClub Aguara
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Naval Talcahuano signalLocal unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Club Aguara signalVisitante unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk48% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Naval Talcahuano vs Club Aguara FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 2–1 · 52% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Naval Talcahuano ganada 52%,Empate 25%,Club Aguara ganada 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.93 · Más de 2.5 56% · Current selection Más de