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INT Peru Liga 1 · Partido ·

FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score1–12.58 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local46%
Empate29%
Victoria visitante25%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 46% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local46% selection probability
Projected score1–1FBC MelgarAlianza Lima
Expected goals2.58Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Menos de52% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcan53% for the selected side
Expected corners7.8Menos de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
46% / 29% / 25%Resultado del partidoVictoria local46%2.17
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Alianza Lima win (25.1%)Doble Oportunidad1X74.9%1.34
Más de 48% · Menos de 52%Goals 2.5Menos de52%1.92
Sí 53% · No 47%Ambos equipos marcan53%1.89
2.58 total expected goalsMarcador exacto1–1
7.8 expected match cornersCórnersMenos de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.9%Largest probability gapFBC Melgar winDifference-0.3 pp
OutcomePronósticoCuotas justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
FBC Melgar win46%2.172.0046.3%-0.3 pp
Empate29%3.453.2029%0.0 pp
Alianza Lima win25%4.003.7524.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FBC Melgar1.42

Local share of expected goals 55%

Total expected goals2.58Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Más de 48% · Menos de 52%

Alianza Lima1.16

Visitante share of expected goals 45%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 53% · No 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

FBC Melgar

2.00pts / match
Jugados5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Puntos10

SignalLocal unbeaten 4/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Alianza Lima

2.20pts / match
Jugados5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Puntos11

SignalLocal matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
46%
Ganado probability excluding draw
25%
10
Points from supplied form
11
1.42
Expected goals
1.16
FBC MelgarAlianza Lima
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FBC Melgar signalLocal unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Alianza Lima signalLocal matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk54% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 1–1 · 46% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FBC Melgar ganada 46%,Empate 29%,Alianza Lima ganada 25%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.58 · Más de 2.5 48% · Current selection Menos de