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ENG England - Championship · Round 1 ·

Watford vs Southampton

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–22.97 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg26%
Unentschieden27%
Auswärtssieg48%
Full model forecastAuswärtssiegTier A · 48% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAuswärtssieg48% selection probability
Projected score1–2WatfordSouthampton
Expected goals2.97Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Über57% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa57% for the selected side
Expected corners10.7Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
26% / 27% / 48%SpielergebnisAuswärtssieg48%2.08
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Watford win (25.7%)Doppelte ChanceX274.3%1.35
Über 57% · Unter 43%Goals 2.5Über57%1.75
Ja 57% · Nein 43%Beide Teams treffenJa57%1.75
2.97 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–2
10.7 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.3%Largest probability gapSouthampton winDifference+1.0 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Watford win26%3.853.6026.1%-0.1 pp
Unentschieden27%3.703.5026.9%+0.1 pp
Southampton win48%2.082.0047%+1.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Watford1.09

Heim share of expected goals 36.7%

Total expected goals2.97Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 57% · Unter 43%

Southampton1.88

Auswärts share of expected goals 63.3%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitJa 57% · Nein 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Watford

0.60pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Punkte3

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Southampton

2.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Punkte11

SignalHeim failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
26%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
48%
3
Points from supplied form
11
1.09
Expected goals
1.88
WatfordSouthampton
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Watford signalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Southampton signalHeim failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk52% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Watford vs Southampton FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Auswärtssieg · Projected score 1–2 · 48% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Watford Gewinn 26%,Unentschieden 27%,Southampton Gewinn 48%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.97 · Über 2.5 57% · Current selection Über