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ENG Anglia - Championship · Round 1 ·

Watford vs Southampton

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gospodarze form
Projected score1–22.97 expected goals
Goście form
Wygrana gospodarzy26%
Remis27%
Wygrana gości48%
Full model forecastWygrana gościTier A · 48% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callWygrana gości48% selection probability
Projected score1–2WatfordSouthampton
Expected goals2.97Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Powyżej57% for the selected side
Obie drużyny strzeląTak57% for the selected side
Expected corners10.7Powyżej 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketWybórPrawdopodobieństwoUczciwy kurs
26% / 27% / 48%Wynik meczuWygrana gości48%2.08
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Watford win (25.7%)Podwójna szansaX274.3%1.35
Powyżej 57% · Poniżej 43%Goals 2.5Powyżej57%1.75
Tak 57% · Nie 43%Obie drużyny strzeląTak57%1.75
2.97 total expected goalsDokładny wynik1–2
10.7 expected match cornersRożnePowyżej 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.3%Largest probability gapSouthampton winDifference+1.0 pp
OutcomePrognozaUczciwy kursReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Watford win26%3.853.6026.1%-0.1 pp
Remis27%3.703.5026.9%+0.1 pp
Southampton win48%2.082.0047%+1.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Watford1.09

Gospodarze share of expected goals 36.7%

Total expected goals2.97Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Powyżej 57% · Poniżej 43%

Southampton1.88

Goście share of expected goals 63.3%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitTak 57% · Nie 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gospodarze-context · form sequence

Watford

0.60pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Punkty3

SignalGospodarze matches over 2.5: 4/5

Goście-context · form sequence

Southampton

2.20pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Punkty11

SignalGospodarze failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
26%
Wygrana probability excluding draw
48%
3
Points from supplied form
11
1.09
Expected goals
1.88
WatfordSouthampton
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Watford signalGospodarze matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Southampton signalGospodarze failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk52% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remis probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Watford vs Southampton FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Wygrana gości · Projected score 1–2 · 48% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Watford wygrana 26%,Remis 27%,Southampton wygrana 48%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.97 · Powyżej 2.5 57% · Current selection Powyżej