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LTU Litauen - A Lyga · Round 20 ·

Banga Gargzdai vs Suduva Marijampole

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–11.69 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg37%
Unentschieden30%
Auswärtssieg33%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg37% selection probability
Projected score1–1Banga GargzdaiSuduva Marijampole
Expected goals1.69Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Unter76% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein68% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
37% / 30% / 33%SpielergebnisHeimsieg37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (30.2%)Doppelte Chance1269.8%1.43
Über 24% · Unter 76%Goals 2.5Unter76%1.32
Ja 32% · Nein 68%Beide Teams treffenNein68%1.47
1.69 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–1
9.4 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin12.0%Largest probability gapBanga Gargzdai winDifference-0.2 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Banga Gargzdai win37%2.702.4037.2%-0.2 pp
Unentschieden30%3.333.0029.8%+0.2 pp
Suduva Marijampole win33%3.032.7033.1%-0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Banga Gargzdai0.95

Heim share of expected goals 56.2%

Total expected goals1.69Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Über 24% · Unter 76%

Suduva Marijampole0.74

Auswärts share of expected goals 43.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 32% · Nein 68%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Banga Gargzdai

2.40pts / match
Gespielt5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Punkte12

SignalHeim unbeaten 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Suduva Marijampole

2.60pts / match
Gespielt5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Punkte13

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
37%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
33%
12
Points from supplied form
13
0.95
Expected goals
0.74
Banga GargzdaiSuduva Marijampole
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Banga Gargzdai signalHeim unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Suduva Marijampole signalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Banga Gargzdai vs Suduva Marijampole FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Banga Gargzdai Gewinn 37%,Unentschieden 30%,Suduva Marijampole Gewinn 33%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.69 · Über 2.5 24% · Current selection Unter