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SCO Skottland - Premiership · Match ·

Kilmarnock vs St Mirren

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–12.51 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger45%
Oavgjort29%
Bortaseger26%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 45% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger45% selection probability
Projected score2–1KilmarnockSt Mirren
Expected goals2.51Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under54% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej51% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
45% / 29% / 26%MatchresultatHemmaseger45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes St Mirren win (26.3%)Dubbelchans1X73.7%1.36
Över 46% · Under 54%Goals 2.5Under54%1.85
Ja 49% · Nej 51%Båda lagen gör målNej51%1.96
2.51 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.9 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Kilmarnock win45%2.22
Oavgjort29%3.45
St Mirren win26%3.85

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Kilmarnock1.55

Hemma share of expected goals 61.8%

Total expected goals2.51Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 46% · Under 54%

St Mirren0.96

Borta share of expected goals 38.2%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 49% · Nej 51%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Kilmarnock

1.80pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Poäng9

SignalHemma won 3/5

Borta-context · form sequence

St Mirren

2.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Poäng10

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
45%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
26%
9
Points from supplied form
10
1.55
Expected goals
0.96
KilmarnockSt Mirren
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Kilmarnock signalHemma won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02St Mirren signalHemma matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Kilmarnock vs St Mirren FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Kilmarnock vunnen 45%,Oavgjort 29%,St Mirren vunnen 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.51 · Över 2.5 46% · Current selection Under