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CRI Costa Rica - Primera Division · Round 3 ·

Herediano vs Alajuelense

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–11.86 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger37%
Oavgjort33%
Bortaseger30%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger37% selection probability
Projected score1–1HeredianoAlajuelense
Expected goals1.86Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under71% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej63% for the selected side
Expected corners10.4Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
37% / 33% / 30%MatchresultatHemmaseger37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Alajuelense win (29.8%)Dubbelchans1X70.2%1.42
Över 29% · Under 71%Goals 2.5Under71%1.41
Ja 37% · Nej 63%Båda lagen gör målNej63%1.59
1.86 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
10.4 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Herediano win37%2.70
Oavgjort33%3.03
Alajuelense win30%3.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Herediano1.03

Hemma share of expected goals 55.4%

Total expected goals1.86Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Över 29% · Under 71%

Alajuelense0.83

Borta share of expected goals 44.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 37% · Nej 63%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Herediano

1.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Poäng6

SignalHemma unbeaten 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Alajuelense

1.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Poäng8

SignalHemma matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
37%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
30%
6
Points from supplied form
8
1.03
Expected goals
0.83
HeredianoAlajuelense
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Herediano signalHemma unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Alajuelense signalHemma matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 33%.

Match questions

Herediano vs Alajuelense FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Herediano vunnen 37%,Oavgjort 33%,Alajuelense vunnen 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.86 · Över 2.5 29% · Current selection Under