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CRI Costa Rica - Primera División · Round 3 ·

Herediano vs Liga Deportiva Alajuelense

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score1–11.86 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local39%
Empate29%
Victoria visitante32%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local39% selection probability
Projected score1–1HeredianoLiga Deportiva Alajuelense
Expected goals1.86Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Menos de71% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcanNo63% for the selected side
Expected corners10.4Más de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
39% / 29% / 32%Resultado del partidoVictoria local39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.3%)Doble Oportunidad1270.7%1.41
Más de 29% · Menos de 71%Goals 2.5Menos de71%1.41
Sí 37% · No 63%Ambos equipos marcanNo63%1.59
1.86 total expected goalsMarcador exacto1–1
10.4 expected match cornersCórnersMás de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.5%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.1 pp
OutcomePronósticoCuotas justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Herediano win39%2.562.3039%0.0 pp
Empate29%3.453.1028.9%+0.1 pp
Liga Deportiva Alajuelense win32%3.132.8032%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Herediano1.03

Local share of expected goals 55.4%

Total expected goals1.86Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Más de 29% · Menos de 71%

Liga Deportiva Alajuelense0.83

Visitante share of expected goals 44.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 37% · No 63%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Herediano

1.20pts / match
Jugados5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Puntos6

SignalLocal unbeaten 4/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Liga Deportiva Alajuelense

1.60pts / match
Jugados5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Puntos8

SignalLocal matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
39%
Ganado probability excluding draw
32%
6
Points from supplied form
8
1.03
Expected goals
0.83
HeredianoLiga Deportiva Alajuelense
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Herediano signalLocal unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Liga Deportiva Alajuelense signalLocal matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Herediano vs Liga Deportiva Alajuelense FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 1–1 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Herediano ganada 39%,Empate 29%,Liga Deportiva Alajuelense ganada 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.86 · Más de 2.5 29% · Current selection Menos de