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EST Estland - Esiliiga · Match ·

FC Elva vs Tartu JK Welco

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–23.74 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger23%
Oavgjort21%
Bortaseger56%
Full model forecastBortasegerTier A · 56% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callBortaseger56% selection probability
Projected score2–2FC ElvaTartu JK Welco
Expected goals3.74Öppna match profile
Goals 2.5Över72% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa70% for the selected side
Expected corners10.9Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
23% / 21% / 56%MatchresultatBortaseger56%1.79
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (20.8%)Dubbelchans1279.2%1.26
Över 72% · Under 28%Goals 2.5Över72%1.39
Ja 70% · Nej 30%Båda lagen gör målJa70%1.43
3.74 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–2
10.9 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.2%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.2 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
FC Elva win23%4.353.9023.1%-0.1 pp
Oavgjort21%4.764.3320.8%+0.2 pp
Tartu JK Welco win56%1.791.6056.2%-0.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FC Elva1.52

Hemma share of expected goals 40.6%

Total expected goals3.74Öppna

Dedicated goals model: Över 72% · Under 28%

Tartu JK Welco2.22

Borta share of expected goals 59.4%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitJa 70% · Nej 30%Match profileÖppna
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

FC Elva

1.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Poäng8

SignalHemma unbeaten 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Tartu JK Welco

1.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poäng7

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
23%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
56%
8
Points from supplied form
7
1.52
Expected goals
2.22
FC ElvaTartu JK Welco
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FC Elva signalHemma unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Tartu JK Welco signalHemma matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk44% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 21%.

Match questions

FC Elva vs Tartu JK Welco FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Bortaseger · Projected score 2–2 · 56% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FC Elva vunnen 23%,Oavgjort 21%,Tartu JK Welco vunnen 56%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.74 · Över 2.5 72% · Current selection Över