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ITA Italien - Serie C - Grupp A · Final ·

Cittadella vs US Pergolettese

Prediction review

Hemma form
Final score2–0Prognos 1–1
Borta form
Hemmaseger57%
Oavgjort27%
Bortaseger16%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 57% selection probability
Prediction Vunnen
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger57% selection probability
Projected score1–1CittadellaUS Pergolettese
Expected goals2.32Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under59% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej54% for the selected side
Expected corners8.6Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
57% / 27% / 16%MatchresultatHemmaseger57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes US Pergolettese win (16.2%)Dubbelchans1X83.8%1.19
Över 41% · Under 59%Goals 2.5Under59%1.69
Ja 46% · Nej 54%Båda lagen gör målNej54%1.85
2.32 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
8.6 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.3%Largest probability gapCittadella winDifference-1.0 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Cittadella win57%1.751.5558%-1.0 pp
Oavgjort27%3.703.4026.4%+0.6 pp
US Pergolettese win16%6.255.7515.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Cittadella1.41

Hemma share of expected goals 60.8%

Total expected goals2.32Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Över 41% · Under 59%

US Pergolettese0.91

Borta share of expected goals 39.2%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 46% · Nej 54%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Cittadella

1.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poäng7

SignalHemma matches under 2.5: 5/5

Borta-context · form sequence

US Pergolettese

1.80pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Poäng9

SignalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
57%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
16%
7
Points from supplied form
9
1.41
Expected goals
0.91
CittadellaUS Pergolettese
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Cittadella signalHemma matches under 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02US Pergolettese signalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Cittadella vs US Pergolettese FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 1–1 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Cittadella vunnen 57%,Oavgjort 27%,US Pergolettese vunnen 16%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.32 · Över 2.5 41% · Current selection Under