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BEL Belgien - First Division A · Final ·

Charleroi vs KV Mechelen

Prediction review

Hemma form
Final score2–0Prognos 2–1
Borta form
Hemmaseger56%
Oavgjort25%
Bortaseger19%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 56% selection probability
Prediction Vunnen
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger56% selection probability
Projected score2–1CharleroiKV Mechelen
Expected goals2.64Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under51% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
56% / 25% / 19%MatchresultatHemmaseger56%1.79
Derived from 1X2 · excludes KV Mechelen win (18.9%)Dubbelchans1X81.1%1.23
Över 49% · Under 51%Goals 2.5Under51%1.96
Ja 52% · Nej 48%Båda lagen gör målJa52%1.92
2.64 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.1 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.4%Largest probability gapCharleroi winDifference-0.9 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Charleroi win56%1.791.6256.9%-0.9 pp
Oavgjort25%4.003.7524.6%+0.4 pp
KV Mechelen win19%5.265.0018.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Charleroi1.58

Hemma share of expected goals 59.8%

Total expected goals2.64Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 49% · Under 51%

KV Mechelen1.06

Borta share of expected goals 40.2%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 52% · Nej 48%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Charleroi

1.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poäng7

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

Borta-context · form sequence

KV Mechelen

0.80pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Poäng4

SignalBorta failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
56%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
19%
7
Points from supplied form
4
1.58
Expected goals
1.06
CharleroiKV Mechelen
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Charleroi signalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02KV Mechelen signalBorta failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk44% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Charleroi vs KV Mechelen FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 56% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Charleroi vunnen 56%,Oavgjort 25%,KV Mechelen vunnen 19%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.64 · Över 2.5 49% · Current selection Under