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UZB Uzbekistan PFL · Match ·

Xorazm FK Urganch vs FK Mashal Mubarek

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–11.78 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger45%
Oavgjort33%
Bortaseger22%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 45% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger45% selection probability
Projected score1–1Xorazm FK UrganchFK Mashal Mubarek
Expected goals1.78Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under73% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej68% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
45% / 33% / 22%MatchresultatHemmaseger45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes FK Mashal Mubarek win (22.3%)Dubbelchans1X77.7%1.29
Över 27% · Under 73%Goals 2.5Under73%1.37
Ja 32% · Nej 68%Båda lagen gör målNej68%1.47
1.78 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.7 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Xorazm FK Urganch win45%2.22
Oavgjort33%3.03
FK Mashal Mubarek win22%4.55

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Xorazm FK Urganch1.19

Hemma share of expected goals 66.9%

Total expected goals1.78Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Över 27% · Under 73%

FK Mashal Mubarek0.59

Borta share of expected goals 33.1%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 32% · Nej 68%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Xorazm FK Urganch

0.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Poäng3

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

Borta-context · form sequence

FK Mashal Mubarek

0.80pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Poäng4

SignalHemma failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
45%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
22%
3
Points from supplied form
4
1.19
Expected goals
0.59
Xorazm FK UrganchFK Mashal Mubarek
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Xorazm FK Urganch signalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FK Mashal Mubarek signalHemma failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 33%.

Match questions

Xorazm FK Urganch vs FK Mashal Mubarek FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 1–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Xorazm FK Urganch vunnen 45%,Oavgjort 33%,FK Mashal Mubarek vunnen 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.78 · Över 2.5 27% · Current selection Under