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BGR Bulgarien - First League · Final ·

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali

Prediction review

Hemma form
Final score0–1Prognos 1–1
Borta form
Hemmaseger24%
Oavgjort31%
Bortaseger45%
Full model forecastBortasegerTier A · 45% selection probability
Prediction Vunnen
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callBortaseger45% selection probability
Projected score1–1Lokomotiv PlovdivArda Kardzhali
Expected goals1.78Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under73% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej65% for the selected side
Expected corners8.5Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
24% / 31% / 45%MatchresultatBortaseger45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Lokomotiv Plovdiv win (23.9%)DubbelchansX276.1%1.31
Över 27% · Under 73%Goals 2.5Under73%1.37
Ja 35% · Nej 65%Båda lagen gör målNej65%1.54
1.78 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
8.5 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.0%Largest probability gapArda Kardzhali winDifference-1.0 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Lokomotiv Plovdiv win24%4.174.0023.6%+0.4 pp
Oavgjort31%3.233.1030.4%+0.6 pp
Arda Kardzhali win45%2.222.0546%-1.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.80

Hemma share of expected goals 44.9%

Total expected goals1.78Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Över 27% · Under 73%

Arda Kardzhali0.98

Borta share of expected goals 55.1%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 35% · Nej 65%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

0.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Poäng3

SignalHemma failed to score: 3/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Arda Kardzhali

2.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Poäng10

SignalBorta unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
24%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
45%
3
Points from supplied form
10
0.80
Expected goals
0.98
Lokomotiv PlovdivArda Kardzhali
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Lokomotiv Plovdiv signalHemma failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Arda Kardzhali signalBorta unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Bortaseger · Projected score 1–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vunnen 24%,Oavgjort 31%,Arda Kardzhali vunnen 45%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.78 · Över 2.5 27% · Current selection Under