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BGR Bulgarien - First League · Match ·

Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–12.27 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger33%
Oavgjort31%
Bortaseger37%
Full model forecastBortasegerTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callBortaseger37% selection probability
Projected score1–1Botev VratsaBotev Plovdiv
Expected goals2.27Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under61% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
33% / 31% / 37%MatchresultatBortaseger37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (30.8%)Dubbelchans1269.2%1.45
Över 39% · Under 61%Goals 2.5Under61%1.64
Ja 46% · Nej 54%Båda lagen gör målNej54%1.85
2.27 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.3 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Botev Vratsa win33%3.03
Oavgjort31%3.23
Botev Plovdiv win37%2.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Botev Vratsa1.07

Hemma share of expected goals 47.1%

Total expected goals2.27Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Över 39% · Under 61%

Botev Plovdiv1.20

Borta share of expected goals 52.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 46% · Nej 54%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Botev Vratsa

0.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Poäng1

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Botev Plovdiv

1.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poäng7

SignalHemma failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
33%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
37%
1
Points from supplied form
7
1.07
Expected goals
1.20
Botev VratsaBotev Plovdiv
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Botev Vratsa signalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Botev Plovdiv signalHemma failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Bortaseger · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Botev Vratsa vunnen 33%,Oavgjort 31%,Botev Plovdiv vunnen 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.27 · Över 2.5 39% · Current selection Under