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BGR България - Първа Лига · Final ·

Локомотив Пловдив vs Арда Кърджали

Prediction review

Домакин form
Final score0–1Прогноза 1–1
Гост form
Победа за домакина24%
Равен31%
Победа за госта45%
Full model forecastПобеда за гостаTier A · 45% selection probability
Prediction Познат
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда за госта45% selection probability
Projected score1–1Локомотив ПловдивАрда Кърджали
Expected goals1.78Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Под73% for the selected side
И двата отбора да отбележатНе65% for the selected side
Expected corners8.5Под 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketИзборВероятностСправедлив коефициент
24% / 31% / 45%Резултат от мачаПобеда за госта45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Локомотив Пловдив win (23.9%)Двоен шансX276.1%1.31
Над 27% · Под 73%Goals 2.5Под73%1.37
Да 35% · Не 65%И двата отбора да отбележатНе65%1.54
1.78 total expected goalsТочен резултат1–1
8.5 expected match cornersКорнериПод 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.0%Largest probability gapАрда Кърджали winDifference-1.0 pp
OutcomeПрогнозаСправедлив коефициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Локомотив Пловдив win24%4.174.0023.6%+0.4 pp
Равен31%3.233.1030.4%+0.6 pp
Арда Кърджали win45%2.222.0546%-1.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Локомотив Пловдив0.80

Домакин share of expected goals 44.9%

Total expected goals1.78Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Над 27% · Под 73%

Арда Кърджали0.98

Гост share of expected goals 55.1%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitДа 35% · Не 65%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Домакин-context · form sequence

Локомотив Пловдив

0.60pts / match
Изиграни5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Точки3

SignalДомакин failed to score: 3/5

Гост-context · form sequence

Арда Кърджали

2.00pts / match
Изиграни5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Точки10

SignalГост unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
24%
Печеливш probability excluding draw
45%
3
Points from supplied form
10
0.80
Expected goals
0.98
Локомотив ПловдивАрда Кърджали
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Локомотив Пловдив signalДомакин failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Арда Кърджали signalГост unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Равен probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

Локомотив Пловдив vs Арда Кърджали FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа за госта · Projected score 1–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Локомотив Пловдив печеливш 24%,Равен 31%,Арда Кърджали печеливш 45%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.78 · Над 2.5 27% · Current selection Под