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URY Uruguay - Clausura · Meci ·

Defensor Sporting vs Montevideo City Torque

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score1–22.60 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde17%
Egal26%
Victorie oaspeți57%
Full model forecastVictorie oaspețiTier A · 57% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie oaspeți57% selection probability
Projected score1–2Defensor SportingMontevideo City Torque
Expected goals2.60Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sub52% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu58% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
17% / 26% / 57%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie oaspeți57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Defensor Sporting win (17%)Șansă dublăX283%1.20
Peste 48% · Sub 52%Goals 2.5Sub52%1.92
Da 42% · Nu 58%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu58%1.72
2.60 total expected goalsScor corect1–2
9.3 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nu snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCotă corectă
Defensor Sporting win17%5.88
Egal26%3.85
Montevideo City Torque win57%1.75

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Defensor Sporting0.66

Gazde share of expected goals 25.4%

Total expected goals2.60Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Peste 48% · Sub 52%

Montevideo City Torque1.94

Oaspeți share of expected goals 74.6%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitDa 42% · Nu 58%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Defensor Sporting

0.40pts / match
Jucate5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Puncte2

SignalGazde matches under 2.5: 4/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Montevideo City Torque

2.60pts / match
Jucate5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Puncte13

SignalGazde failed to score: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
17%
Câștig probability excluding draw
57%
2
Points from supplied form
13
0.66
Expected goals
1.94
Defensor SportingMontevideo City Torque
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Defensor Sporting signalGazde matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Montevideo City Torque signalGazde failed to score: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Defensor Sporting vs Montevideo City Torque FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie oaspeți · Projected score 1–2 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Defensor Sporting câștig 17%,Egal 26%,Montevideo City Torque câștig 57%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.60 · Peste 2.5 48% · Current selection Sub